OBAMA UP IN RASMUSSEN POLL – AT 5:36 P.M. ET:  All data reported in today's Rasmussen presidential survey was acquired in polling done after the president's Tucson speech, and it appears that Mr. Obama has indeed gotten a bump:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Thirty-seven percent (37%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -10.

And...

Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove.

That's the president's best showing since the exact same numbers were reported on December 27th.  There's no guarantee, of course, that this halo will last, and please note that the numbers are still in negative territory.  They're just a little less negative than usual.

At the same time, Republicans lead in the generic congressional ballot, although the lead has narrowed:

New Rasmussen Reports telephone polling finds that 46% of Likely U.S. Voters nationwide say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 38% would choose the Democrat instead.

Last week, Republicans posted a 47% to 36% lead over Democrats. The week before Election Day last November, support for Republicans peaked at 51%, the highest level of support either party has enjoyed in the last two years, but it has tapered off slightly since then.

And...

Republicans lead by 16 points among men but run even with Democrats among women. The GOP holds a 22-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

The Democratic collapse among independents is stunning.  If Republicans can hold the indies, there may be reason for optimism for 2012, if the GOP can find a candidate who is breathing, and has a normal pulse.

January 18, 2011